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Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Game 5 Preview
2010-10-12
Sportsbook.com Betting Odds: Tampa Bay -113, Texas +103 Total: 6.5
You couldn’t ask for a better pitching match-up for tonight’s ALDS elimination game as the Texas Rangers visit the Tampa Bay Rays. The loser goes home while the winner advance to take on the New York Yankees.
It’s a rematch of Game 1 starters with Cliff Lee (13-9, 3.12 ERA including postseason) going up against David Price (19-7, 2.81 ERA including postseason). The baseball betting public thinks Tampa Bay will advance as 79% of the money is backing the Rays.
Lee was brilliant in Game 1, working around a first-inning, bases-loaded jam to throw seven innings of one-run, five-hit ball while striking out 10. The only blemish was a seventh-inning solo home run by Ben Zobrist. The performance was no surprise given Lee’s career postseason numbers – 5-0 with a 1.52 ERA and 0.80 WHIP in six career starts. He’s had success against the Rays over the years too, going 7-5 with a 2.56 ERA and a WHIP of just under 1.00 in 14 career starts against Tampa Bay.
David Price hopes to deliver a Game 5 win after a shaky outing in the series opener. The young left-hander was touched for five runs (four earned) on nine hits over 6.2 innings. He surrendered two home runs and struck out eight. It was another poor start against Texas, a glaring trend that the Rays hope to turn around on Tuesday. In five lifetime starts against the Rangers (including postseason), Price is 0-3 with a 6.92 ERA and 1.58 WHIP. However, he should enjoy the return trip home. Price was dominant inside the Trop this year, going 9-2 with a 1.96 ERA and .206 opponents’ batting average in the regular season.
The Rays were against the ropes down 2-0 in the series, but these betting trends discovered at Sportsbook.com think Tampa Bay will pull off the comeback and win its third straight game:
Play On - Home teams (TAMPA BAY) - cold hitting team - batting .240 or worse over their last 10 games against opponent starting a pitcher who gave up <=1 earned runs in his last 2 outings. (133-67 over the last 5 seasons.) (66.5%, +72 units. Rating = 4*).
Play On - Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (TAMPA BAY) - with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 3.00 over his last 10 games, with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 3.00 the last 15 games. (39-16 over the last 5 seasons.) (70.9%, +23.4 units. Rating = 3*).
With the most generous dime lines in the business make Sportsbook.com the place for all of your MLB betting.
MLB: Twins and Tigers tangle for two2009-09-29The next three days could determine the AL Central champion, and the most pivotal hours will come Tuesday. After rain washed out the scheduled opener of a four-game series, the division-leading Detroit Tigers and second-place Minnesota Twins will play a day-night doubleheader at Comerica Park. Detroit is favored in both games, but with the way the Twins have been playing, one would have to think that a sweep by the Tigers is unlikely. Therefore, the underdog bettor should bring home at least a small profit. Get the latest prices on the LIVE ODDS page at Sportsbook.com.
Detroit (83-72, +0.6) had a comfortable seven-game cushion in the division on Sept. 6, but that lead has dwindled to two as the Tigers have dropped 11 of 19 while the Twins (81-74, -1.9) are 11-2 since Sept. 13. Detroit has been tied or alone atop the division since May 10. No team has ever lost the title in the last week of the season after leading for that long.
“I thought it would go down to the wire and obviously that’s going to be the case,” Tigers manager Jim Leyland said. “I hope my players have some butterflies, but there’s a difference between nervous and scared.”
Minnesota’s surge includes winning two of three home games against Detroit from Sept. 18-20. However, the scene has now shifted to Comerica Park, where the Tigers are 48-26 this season and 21-8 in home games in day games.
They’ll also start one of the AL’s top rookies and their All-Star ace in Tuesday’s doubleheader.
Rick Porcello (14-9, 4.14 ERA) is 4-1 with a 3.28 ERA in his last six starts, boosting his chances to win AL Rookie of the Year. The 20-year-old right-hander is 1-2 with a 3.71 ERA in three starts against the Twins this season, and has lost his last two - both at the Metrodome - while receiving no runs from his teammates.
Porcello beat the Twins at home May 5, giving up four hits over seven innings of a 9-0 victory. The Tigers are 18-11 in his starts this season and they have won the last five at home.
Justin Verlander (17-9, 3.41) will try to give the Tigers another needed victory in the finale and match his career high for wins, set in 2007. He helped Detroit avoid a three-game skid Thursday, striking out 11 over seven innings of a 6-5 victory in Cleveland.
The Twins haven’t been easy to tame for the right-hander, who has a major league-leading 256 strikeouts. Minnesota has scored five runs in successive wins against Verlander over the last two months, including an 11-0 victory in Detroit on Aug. 8. The Tigers ace is just 3-8 (-8.7 Units) against the money line vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game this season. (Tigers Record)
The Twins will counter with Nick Blackburn (11-11, 4.18) and rookie Brian Duensing (5-1, 3.33), who has been excellent since moving into the rotation Aug. 22.
Blackburn has put a difficult stretch behind him, winning his last two starts by yielding two runs in 13 1/3 innings after going 1-7 with a 7.36 ERA in his previous 11 outings. The right-hander was masterful Monday night as he scattered eight hits and struck out six over seven innings of a 7-0 win in Chicago. Blackburn is 2-2 with a 3.66 ERA in five career starts against Detroit, but both losses have come at Comerica Park. He’s 0-3 with an 8.00 ERA in four career appearances there and he and his teammates are 0-12 in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons.
“This is what we all play for. It’s a blast,” Blackburn said. “Being in a race like this makes it even more exciting. There’s more pressure, but it makes us enjoy the wins even more.”
Duensing is searching for his sixth consecutive victory as a starter and fourth in as many starts. The left-hander earned a victory at Chicago on Wednesday night, giving up four runs and nine hits over 5 2/3 innings. He won his only start against Detroit on Sept. 18, allowing four hits in 6 1/3 innings of a 3-0 home victory.
The Twins start the day 18-5 on Tuesday’s and are an underdog according to Sportsbook.com in both games. In the first contest Minnesota is +120 with total of nine and the nightcap could be adjusted by outcome of first game, but for now the Twinkies at +150 with total lowered to eight. The Twins are 19-10 vs. AL teams allowing 4.7 or less runs a game in the second half of the season.
Detroit has won last 23 of 33 home games against right-handed starters, which is the situation in Game 1 and the Tigers are 11-3 when Verlander is favorite in home park.
Both games are available for viewing in home markets and MLB.TV. The first AL Central battle starts at 12:05 Eastern with the nitecap at 7:05E. StatFox Power Line – Detroit -105 (Game 1), Minnesota -119 (Game 2)
MLB: Bettors shaking head over baseball matchup2009-05-19Come on now, be totally honest, the first you knew about Texas and Detroit being a tussle between division leaders was right now. Oh sure you might have known the Rangers were playing pretty good baseball and the Tigers were ahead of the curve, especially compared to last year, but both clubs in first place, nah you are just trying to act like you know everything about betting baseball. For tonight’s series opening contest, Texas is a road favorite and backed heavily by Sportsbook bettors thus far. Get the latest percentages on the BETTING TRENDS page.
The Rangers (23-14, +10.6 units) hit the road after sweeping division partners Seattle and Los Angeles of Anaheim in Arlington and motor into the DEtroit with seven-game winning streak. The fact that Texas is scoring 5.9 runs per game during the winning streak is not a surprise, but pitchers from T E X A S holding opposing team to 2.9 runs per game?! That’s usually about halfway thru any given contest, not nine innings by Rangers hurlers.
The following quote by Texas Marlon Byrd explains how screwed up the Rangers are being in first place.
"A first-place team, expectations are going to be up again. We're trying to gain some separation between ourselves and the teams in our division, so we have to go up there and keep doing what we've been doing, as far as pitching and defense." – Byrd said.
Texas players have words like pitching and defense in the vocabulary, what’s next; hitting is no longer the linchpin to Rangers success.
The Rangers are 13-3 this month and facts are facts, with Texas 10-2 after two straight games where they committed no errors this season. Manager Ron Washington’s club is nine games over .500 for the first time since June 1, 2005.
Detroit (20-16, +3.6) has participated in three consecutive sweeps, the first and last were positive and the one in the middle was not. The Tigers hitters mauled Oakland pitching over the weekend, touching home plate 34 times in banging out 40 base hits. Detroit is 11-5 at Comerica Park, including having won six of seven.
To this point, Dontrelle Willis’ (0-0, 7.71 ERA) contract extension is one of the worst in baseball history. The almost 10 million per year has Willis trailing Carl Pavano’s (when with the Yankees) deal, in which he averaged one win per year for his four year deal. The lefthander, since joining Detroit is 0-2 with a 9.10 ERA in nine appearances, having walked 37 while striking out 18. In his season debut Wednesday, he allowed four runs and walked two over 4 2/3 innings of a 14-10 loss at Minnesota.
“My mindset is just simplified, going out there and really just thinking about myself and not really caring about anybody else as far as what they think,” Willis told the Tigers’ official Web site.
The folks at Sportsbook.com aren’t buying Willis being back and have Texas as -127 money line favorites, with total of Ov11. The Rangers are 8-2 after allowing two or fewer runs in last game and will send Brandon McCarthy (3-1, 5.92) to the mound. McCarthy’s record appears a trifle fictitious, with is 1-1mark and 8.40 ERA on the road with opponents hitting .355 off him. Texas has lost six of his last seven starts as visitors.
At least McCarthy won’t have to face Magglio Ordonez, who is on bereavement list for first two games of series. Detroit has turned into notoriously slow starters with 9-25 Game 1 record and they are 1-5 as home underdogs of less than +150. The Tigers are 21-9 OVER at home in May games over the last three seasons.
Texas has already lost three times in MoTown this season and is working on eight games losing streak to the Tigers dating back to Sept. 2007. In this battle of division leaders, first pitch is set for 7:05 Eastern and will be available in local markets.
StatFox Power Line – Detroit -146
MLB: New York Mets in 80.2% MLB System2008-09-10The New York Mets have had been underachievers most of the 2008 season, being hammered on a regular basis on ESPN’s Baseball Tonight and many other media outlets. Baseball bettors backing the Blue and Orange were getting hit hard too, with wagering accounts looking like a dried up creek that had not seen rain in months. This all changed starting on August 7, with a simple 5-3 win over hapless San Diego at Shea Stadium. Today they are backed by an 80%-plus system as they look to take down Washington.
Since that Thursday, New York has won 22 of last 31 contests and is three games ahead of Philadelphia in the loss column with 18 ballgames to go. What changed for the Metropolitans?
The biggest change was the offense started to produce. New York after being in the middle of the pack in the National League most of the season in runs scored is now second behind the Cubs. The catalyst has been Carlos Delgado, who has to be given serious consideration for MVP. When New York was 42-44, Delgado was hitting .235 with 15 home runs and the ravenous New York media was saying he was washed up. The veteran first baseman never quit on himself or teammates and has driven in an astonishing 68 runs in last 66 games. Four times in the last 13 games Delgado has hit two or more home runs, raising total to 35 dingers and 103 RBI.
Thou not completely settled the bullpen has been better with the realization closer Billy Wagner is officially done for the year, meaning others have to step up and they have in recent weeks.
Last night the Mets touched home plate 10 times against Washington and needed just about every run in 10-8 slugfest. These types of games normally do not benefit the underdog in the next outing, as bullpen was probably used significantly and if called upon again, might produce similar results. Review this Super System:
PLAY AGAINST road underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 after allowing nine runs or more against opponent after a combined score of 15 runs or more in last game.
This system has been a long time winner, dating back to 1997, with a 178-44, 80.2 percent record. Typically, these contests are not close either, with the favorite winning by 2.4 runs per game.
Sportsbook.com has New York as -240 money line favorites with total Ov8.5. The Mets based on the season, are catching a break in facing a left-handed starter for the fourth consecutive day in Odalis Perez (6-10, 4.19, 1.475 WHIP). Delgado and company are 30-17 vs. LH starters. New York counters with Mike Pelphrey (13-9, 3.62, 1.330), who has an ERA of 2.66 at Shea, with his teammates 10-6 when he pitches there.
One last salient point on tonight’s super system, the record in 2008 is 11-2.
Baseball Betting 2nd Half Outlook- NL2008-07-17The National League is glad not to have anything to do with the American League until October, when the stakes will be higher. As second half of the year starts today, we’ll examine key stats, scheduling situations of all the teams in contention in the National League. With most teams having about 68 games to play, give or take a few, we’ll see how oddsmakers feel about these teams chances to win division titles and head to World Series.
These are heady times in Chicago this summer, for the first time in 31 years, both major league baseball teams are in first place as the last part of the schedule starts after the break. The Chicago Cubs have been the best team in the senior circuit for the vast majority of the season. They have been consistently one of the best bets in baseball at +12.2 units, and an incredible +19 at Wrigley Field with 37-12 mark. Chicago lead the NL in runs scored, on-base percentage and walks and are 3rd in runs allowed, accounting for largest run differential in the sport at +106. With Alfonso Soriano coming back and Rich Harden solidify starters; the only real pieces left are the return to form of Carlos Marmol and Kerry Wood being a touch more consistent out of the back end of pen. The Cubs will attempt to open a gap between them and Brewers and Cardinals in August, with 21 home games. If this fails, could be dicey September with only nine contests at Friendly Confines. Cubs are 1-3 to win division and odds on choice at 3-2 to make World Series at Sportsbook.com. (Cubs fans and backers, drink lots of fluids)
Milwaukee will give it go, being able to have three excellent and two pretty serviceable starting pitchers over every five-game period. In order to catch the Cubs or be the wide card team, the 7th ranked scoring offense has to climb into the top five, as 11th ranked bullpen does not figure to get much better unless starters can regularly go 7+ innings. Brewers are 5-2 to comeback and win NL Central and 5-1 to return to Series for the first time since Hall-of-Famers Robin Yount and Paul Molitor were patrolling old County Stadium. Milwaukee’s schedule is balanced and includes 10 games with division leading Chicago. The only downside of remaining games is only a dozen versus the NL West.
One of the great mysteries of the first half of the season is how the St. Louis Cardinals have 53-43 record. Based on talent and ability, more than half the teams in the NL have better one-two starting pitcher combo than Kyle Lohse and Adam Wainwright of the Cardinals. The bullpen has 13-20 record and has blown 20 saves; along with 4.29 ERA, which is 13th in the National League. The staff strikes out the fewest batters in the league, just on this information alone, it’s impossible to believe St. Louis would have the best road record in the NL at 27-22, +10.5 units. Yet the offense is second to Cubs in OBP, draws the 2nd most walks and is steady as it goes. The Cards are 5-1 to snag division crown and open with eight home games, including four with the Brew Crew. By August 14, everyone will have a good indication about the Tony LaRussa’s club, playing mostly contenders until that time.
Philadelphia is 2nd in runs scored, has the best bullpen in baseball, and yet can’t create any separation in NL East due to unstable starting pitching. It would seem the Phillies will try to add a starter by July 31 trade deadline, using Brett Myers as the bait for a team needing bullpen help. The offense has been more dissonant than expected and will face immediate test, at Florida and at New York, to start 12 of 15 road contests. Starting August 5, the Phillies play 15 of 22 at home. Philadelphia is just a shade behind Mets to win division crown at 11-10 and 9-2 to earn right to play in Fall Classic.
The Mets are a challenge to figure. After not being to get out of their own shadow, they close 9-0 to have the same number of losses as front-running Philly. Skeptics claim beating San Francisco and Colorado at home is not overly impressive; nevertheless, shutting them out four times in six encounters is an attention grabber. The offense has been tastier than a Nathan’s all-beef, scoring 6.2 runs per game in July. The schedule does not feature any long or short home or road trips and the furthest destination will be one time zone away at Houston. If the starting pitchers can deliver 6+ innings regularly, the warts the bullpen has can be masked pretty well. If the bats continue to grind, the Mets should win the East and 7-2 wager to return to Series is possible.
Just when it looks like it is time to right off Florida, they have resurgence. At 50-45, nobody takes them serious as real contenders (5-1 to win NL East), especially being -28 run differential. The Marlins give up too many runs (14th), allow too many free passes (14th), leaving the offense to pick up the slack. Somehow, someway, Florida scores in bunches and is 3rd in runs scored. Though they create natural wind flow leading the league in K’s, the Marlins find ways to manufacture wins. For exactly one month, Florida plays NL contenders, with possible exception of Colorado. Remember August 18 standings for Florida, it will tell the tale.
Arizona is a squad in real need of veteran leadership. This division is pathetic and they have found a way to bring others back into contention. Bullpen leaks oil, mostly on the road, the starting pitching could be great if Micah Owings and Randy Johnson find a groove. The hitters are too stubborn for their own good, whiffing 3rd most in the league. The D-Backs are 27-19 in downtown Phoenix and could use fast start, facing the Dodgers and Cubs at home. If successful, this creates immediate space in the standings. Build a small lead, hang on and wait until August 19, when the only trip is to sordid San Diego over next 15 ball games.
Like Arizona, the Los Angeles Dodgers are 1-1 odds to win NL West. Playing in Dodger Stadium helps L.A. surrender the fewest runs among the sixteen teams and strongly contributes to them being 13th in runs scored. The bullpen is second in the league in ERA, which means if this team is going to win division; the bats will have to come alive. With virtually no power (15th in home runs), how the Dodgers start magically scoring more runs is food for thought. A 3-3 road trip to commence second half is good beginning, with 20 of next 26 at home. If possible, Joe Torre’s club will want to have a lead in the division by September 8, when only six games will remain to be played at Dodger Stadium.
Because the NL West is so sad, San Francisco and Colorado have to be mentioned and now they have been.
